‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a financial hub, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers note a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Official Position
Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.
The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".
"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a senior official.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
