Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The mean figure of daily homicides per month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder data might not indicate enhanced national stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded over these past months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it could mask days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.