Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
