Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.