🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to take a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, he eventually enacted major restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business background, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. But, Russia's war is not only about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in position the currently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up all of Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that represent a key barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a open way to the capital should he later decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal places no equivalent limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate government as radicals, the proposal declares: "Any extremist doctrine and actions must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" if Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thereby preventing the security presence, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another supplementary accord reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against additional Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not